pKa and Predicting Reactions

pKa and Predicting Reactions

Updated Apr 17, 2026

pKa is the single most useful number in organic chemistry. Given the pKa of two acids, you can predict which way a reaction will run, which hydrogen will be pulled off preferentially, and whether a base is strong enough to do the job you need. Internalize the pKa values of a dozen common functional groups and you will save yourself from memorizing hundreds of individual reactions.

The MCAT will not ask you to calculate a pKa. What it will ask is whether a reaction occurs and which side of the equilibrium is favored. Both answers come from comparing pKa values.

Definition: Ka and pKa

An acid in water establishes an equilibrium:

HA ⇌ H⁺ + A⁻

The acid dissociation constant is:

Ka = [H⁺][A⁻] / [HA]

A bigger Ka means more dissociation, which means a stronger acid. But Ka values span twenty orders of magnitude, so chemists use the logarithm:

pKa = −log Ka

Smaller (or more negative) pKa = stronger acid. Bigger pKa = weaker acid.

pKa Values You Should Memorize

A handful of pKa values covers almost every MCAT question. Anchor these in your head:

SpeciespKaNotes
HI−10Strongest of the common acids
HCl−7Very strong
H₃O⁺−1.7Protonated water
HF3.2Only “weak” hydrohalic acid
Carboxylic acid (RCOOH)4-5Acetic acid = 4.76
Ammonium (NH₄⁺)9.2Protonated amine
Phenol (ArOH)10Aromatic alcohol
Water (H₂O)15.7Reference point
Alcohol (ROH)16-18Ethanol = 16
Terminal alkyne (RC≡CH)25sp hybridization effect
Ester alpha-H25Flanked by one carbonyl
Ketone/aldehyde alpha-H20Flanked by one carbonyl
1,3-dicarbonyl alpha-H10-13Flanked by two carbonyls
Ammonia (NH₃)38Very weak acid
Alkane (R-H)50Essentially non-acidic

Learn the family trends: hydrohalic acids first, then carboxylic acids (4-5), ammoniums (9-10), phenols (10), alcohols (16-18), alpha-carbons (20-25 for one carbonyl, 10-13 for two), amines (38), alkanes (50). You do not need exact values - you need relative order and typical magnitudes.

Why a Stronger Acid Has a Weaker Conjugate Base

Strong acid means the proton dissociates easily. That happens when the conjugate base is stable - it can hold the extra electron pair without trouble. Conversely, a weak acid has a conjugate base that is desperate to reclaim the proton (the conjugate base is unstable as an anion).

Rule to remember: strong acid ↔ weak conjugate base. Weak acid ↔ strong conjugate base.

That is why hydroxide (OH⁻, conjugate base of water at pKa 16) is a stronger base than chloride (Cl⁻, conjugate base of HCl at pKa −7). Water is a weaker acid than HCl, so its conjugate base hangs on to protons more tightly.

Predicting the Direction of an Acid-Base Reaction

Here is the central rule: the equilibrium lies on the side of the weaker acid (the side with the higher pKa).

In other words: a reaction proceeds in the direction that converts a stronger acid into a weaker one (and a stronger base into a weaker one).

Example: does acetic acid (pKa 4.76) react with sodium hydroxide (conjugate acid of hydroxide is water, pKa 15.7)?

  • Forward direction: acetic acid (pKa 4.76) → acetate + water. Water is the product acid with pKa 15.7.
  • The reaction converts acetic acid (stronger, pKa 4.76) into water (weaker, pKa 15.7).
  • Equilibrium lies far to the right - favored by about 10^(15.7 − 4.76) ≈ 101110^{11}.

Yes, the reaction occurs and essentially goes to completion.

Second example: does methanol (pKa 16) react with sodium hydride (NaH - conjugate acid is H₂, pKa ≈ 36)?

  • Forward: methanol → methoxide + H₂. H₂ is much weaker (pKa 36) than methanol (pKa 16).
  • Equilibrium lies on the weaker-acid side (H₂), so strongly to the right.

Again yes - this is how methoxide is actually generated in a lab.

Third example: does ethanol (pKa 16) deprotonate acetone (alpha-H pKa ≈ 20)?

  • Forward: acetone → enolate + ethanol. Ethanol is weaker acid (pKa 16) than acetone (pKa 20). Wait - that is the wrong way around. Let me re-read.
  • Actually: if ethanol removes a proton from acetone, the forward direction is ethanol → ethoxide + acetone-enolate. But we started with acetone being the acid here. If ethanol’s O-H proton is what exists in solution, then ethanol is not the base; we need a base like NaH or LDA to remove the alpha-H.

The practical takeaway: if your proposed base is a weaker acid’s conjugate base than your target acid, the reaction is unfavorable. You need a stronger base (higher pKa conjugate acid) than your target acid. This is why deprotonating a ketone alpha-carbon (pKa 20) requires LDA (conjugate acid pKa 36), not hydroxide (pKa 15.7).

The 10-Unit Rule of Thumb

A quick mental estimate: if the two pKa values differ by at least 10, the reaction goes essentially to completion (equilibrium constant ~101010^{10} favoring the weaker acid). If they differ by 1-3 units, the reaction is close to 50-50 and may or may not be practically useful.

Example: acetic acid (pKa 4.76) + water (pKa 15.7) → acetate + H₃O⁺. The difference is about 11, so yes - essentially complete in the forward direction. But the reverse (acetate + H₃O⁺ → acetic acid + water) is the direction in a strongly acidic solution, so we flip the lens: at low pH, acetate exists mostly as acetic acid; at high pH, mostly as acetate. This is the Henderson-Hasselbalch logic (see General Chemistry Ch 10).

Ka, pKa, and pH Together

The Henderson-Hasselbalch equation ties these together:

pH = pKa + log([A⁻] / [HA])

When pH = pKa, the protonated and deprotonated forms are in equal amounts. At pH two units below pKa, the acid form dominates roughly 100:1. Two units above, the base form dominates 100:1.

For MCAT biology: the carboxylic acid of an amino acid has pKa around 2. At pH 7 (physiological), the COOH is 5 units above its pKa, so it is roughly 99.999% deprotonated (COO⁻). The amine has pKa around 9. At pH 7, the amine is 2 units below its pKa, so it is roughly 99% protonated (NH₃⁺). That is the zwitterion.

A proposed reaction uses sodium ethoxide (pKa of ethanol = 16) to deprotonate acetone (pKa of alpha-H = 20). Is this reaction favored? Why or why not?
Click to reveal answer
No, it is not favored. The forward reaction would produce ethanol (pKa 16) from ethoxide, and enolate from acetone. Equilibrium favors the weaker acid side; since ethanol (pKa 16) is a stronger acid than acetone (pKa 20), equilibrium lies to the LEFT - meaning ethoxide is not basic enough to meaningfully deprotonate acetone. You would need LDA or another stronger base (conjugate acid pKa > 20) to drive the reaction forward.
Rank these from most acidic to least acidic: terminal alkyne H, alcohol O-H, carboxylic acid O-H, water O-H, alkane C-H.
Click to reveal answer
Carboxylic acid (pKa ~4) > water (pKa 15.7) > alcohol (pKa ~16-18) > terminal alkyne (pKa ~25) > alkane (pKa ~50). Carboxylic acid wins by a lot because its conjugate base is resonance-stabilized across two oxygens. Water and alcohols are similar (the oxygen holds the negative charge). Terminal alkynes are much less acidic because the conjugate base (acetylide) is an sp carbon. Alkanes are basically non-acidic - their conjugate bases are sp³ carbanions with no stabilization.

The next section explains WHY these pKa values differ so much - the ARIO framework for ranking acidity from molecular structure alone.